With the rise of online sportsbooks, betting on football has become extremely popular. You can make money placing bets on football games if you use the right strategies.
Foundation of long-term profits
The first key to winning with football bets is proper money management. Without discipline over your bankroll, you are almost certain to lose over the long run. Here are crucial money management guidelines:
- Set a Betting Budget – Determine how much money you afford to lose in a season and stick to it. 1-2% of your bankroll per bet is a sensible guideline.
- Use Proper Bet Sizing – Bet a small percentage of your budget each time. Never risk more than 5% of your bankroll on a single wager.
- Employ Staking Plans – Use staking plans like the Kelly Criterion to optimize bet size based on expected value. It minimizes risk and maximizes returns.
- Avoid Chasing Losses – Never try to win back losses by betting more. This is a recipe for disaster.
By managing your bankroll and bets wisely, you put yourself in a position to ride out losing streaks and capitalize on winning runs.
Handicapping games through statistical analysis
Skilled football handicapping relies on making smart use of stats and trends. Here are the top ways to analyze teams objectively:
- Examine the Against the Spread (ATS) Records – This shows which teams consistently cover the spread. Fading or following strong ATS trends is profitable.
- Home and Away Splits – Look for teams that perform noticeably better at home or on the road. The home field is typically worth 3 points.
- Situational Trends – Spot profitable situations like big underdogs with a rest advantage and divisional dogs.
- Study Yards Per Play – Yards per play (YPP) help reveal which teams move the ball efficiently and control games.
- Coaching Records – Coaches with a strong track record in certain situations like big games or as an underdog are worth betting on.
By becoming an expert at crunching numbers and identifying value, your strike rate will improve dramatically.
Film study provides an edge
Complement handicapping metrics by studying film and scouting personnel. Standout areas to evaluate include:
- Quarterback Play – How accurate are their throws? Do they make smart decisions and avoid turnovers?
- Offensive Line Performance – Winning the battle in the trenches leads to sensa69 better offense.
- Defensive pressure and run stopping – The ability to rush the passer and shut down the run is vital.
- Coaching decisions – Effective coaches scheme impressive game plans and make smart in-game adjustments.
- Player matchups – Observe how cornerbacks cover receivers. Analyze how defensive linemen pressure the QB.
Getting a feel for strengths, weaknesses, and matchups through film study gives you an edge over recreational bettors.