Playing the O/U game is a lot like playing blackjack. You can’t simply study the matchup and know how to play it. You need to look at all the available data, use some basic math and figure out how much risk you want to take. The same principle applies when choosing your NFL picks.
Before you start betting on NFL games against the spread, you need to understand how these games work so that you don’t end up losing money on the whim of your emotions or an incorrect assumption. Understanding O/U comes with practice – just like any other type of gambling.
Over time, you will become a better player through experience and practice. Here are a few tips that can help you quickly choose your NFL picks against the spread:
Look At The Previous Performances Of Both Teams
When choosing a game against the spread, you want to take a look at the previous performances of both teams. This will help you see what kind of record each team has and what their strengths and weaknesses are.
This can also let you know if one team is drastically better than the other. If one team has a 10-2 record while the other team has a measly 1-10 record, you can expect that one team will cover the spread.
If each team has a similar record, then it is up to the oddsmakers to decide which team wins by more points.
Consider The Weather Conditions
We have discussed weather conditions before in our article on how to choose your NFL picks. The same rules apply to the NFL. If it is cloudy and there is a chance of rain, you should avoid these games against the spread. If it is warm and sunny, you can still opt for these games.
But, you should avoid those that are expected to be rainy or stormy. This is because the weather conditions can alter the game and make it too unpredictable to predict with accuracy.
If it is expected to be sunny and windy, it is likely that the game will be affected and might be moved indoors.
Check Out The Current Betting Lines And Trends
Before you choose your NFL computer picks against the spread, you should look at the current betting lines and trends for the game. This can help you choose a game with low risk. You can choose a game that has the same odds as last week’s game.
This might help you avoid playing a game with a high risk. You can also check the current trends of the game. This can let you know if the public is heavily betting on one team or the other.
For example, if the public bets 75 percent on one team, and you decide to choose that game, then you are putting all your money at risk. This is a high-risk game that you should avoid.
Learn About Some Key Stats For Your Game Picks
Some of the common stats you can learn about your game picks are the team rushing yards and passing yards, the team’s field position, the time on the clock, the points scored, and the time the game was won.
You can also look at the total number of yards gained in the first half and the total number of points scored in the first half. This can let you know if both teams are relatively even in terms of yardage and if the game has been decided.
If one team has a huge lead over the other team, this is a high-risk game that you should avoid.